Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Brayden Burries: Points O/U 14.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $349 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$349.16
-$96.1
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Noavg 61¢ | $113.46 | $153.45 | +$39.99 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 58¢ | $74.82 | $106.43 | +$31.61 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
MD mde4life1986CTR | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $218.06 | $34.69 | -$183.36 | 3% 2-63 (65) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $19.63 | $27.37 | +$7.74 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $19.29 | $27.22 | +$7.93 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
Invested
$113.46
Value
$153.45
PnL
+$39.99
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$74.82
Value
$106.43
PnL
+$31.61
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Invested
$218.06
Value
$34.69
PnL
-$183.36
Record
3%
2-63 (65)
Invested
$19.63
Value
$27.37
PnL
+$7.74
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$19.29
Value
$27.22
PnL
+$7.93
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.