Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Timberwolves (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (67%) · Bucks at 42¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
3
Bucks 67%
1 arb excluded
$413.15
-$0.58
42¢ → 42¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Bucksavg 42¢ | $156.24 | $243.98 | +$0.76 | 47% 12954-14535 (27489) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 42¢ | $156.24 | $156.24 | -$0 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolves | $87.74 | $87.74 | +$0.76 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bucksavg 42¢ | $109.1 | $109.1 | +$0 | 58% 43586-31701 (75287) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 57¢ | $57 | $58 | -$0.5 | 54% 404-347 (751) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 43¢ | $5 | $2.08 | -$0.08 | 52% 7634-6911 (14545) |
Invested
$156.24
Value
$243.98
PnL
+$0.76
Record
47%
12954-14535 (27489)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$109.1
Value
$109.1
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
43586-31701 (75287)
Invested
$57
Value
$58
PnL
-$0.5
Record
54%
404-347 (751)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
7634-6911 (14545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.