Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (80%) · Bucks at 53¢ · $493 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 80%
$493.05
-$1.88
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Bucksavg 53¢ | $265 | $265 | -$0 | 58% 43586-31701 (75287) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Timberwolvesavg 46¢ | $154.59 | $154.59 | -$1.68 | 54% 404-347 (751) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Bucksavg 53¢ | $62.96 | $62.96 | -$0 | 53% 5746-5083 (10829) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Bucksavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $5.25 | -$0.05 | 55% 7454-5978 (13432) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Bucksavg 54¢ | $10 | $5.25 | -$0.15 | 52% 7634-6911 (14545) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$265
Value
$265
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
43586-31701 (75287)
Invested
$154.59
Value
$154.59
PnL
-$1.68
Record
54%
404-347 (751)
Invested
$62.96
Value
$62.96
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5746-5083 (10829)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
7454-5978 (13432)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
7634-6911 (14545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.