Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (60%) · Timberwolves at 52¢ · $835 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
5
Timberwolves 60%
$834.99
-$9.57
50.3¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Timberwolvesavg 50¢ | $372.82 | $380.28 | -$11.18 | 54% 404-347 (751) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bucksavg 49¢ | $245 | $245 | +$0 | 58% 43586-31701 (75287) |
FE ferdinand2 | Timberwolvesavg 51¢ | $335.14 | $172.6 | +$1.68 | 51% 990-958 (1948) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 49.1¢ | $36.22 | $36.12 | -$0.1 | 53% 5746-5083 (10829) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 49¢ | $0.96 | $1 | +$0.04 | 47% 12954-14535 (27489) |
Invested
$372.82
Value
$380.28
PnL
-$11.18
Record
54%
404-347 (751)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$245
Value
$245
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
43586-31701 (75287)
Invested
$335.14
Value
$172.6
PnL
+$1.68
Record
51%
990-958 (1948)
Invested
$36.22
Value
$36.12
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
5746-5083 (10829)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.04
Record
47%
12954-14535 (27489)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.