Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 88%
$3.8K
$74.47
48¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$71.3 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $71.97 | $74.96 | +$2.99 | 54% 509-435 (944) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $62.84 | $64.27 | +$1.43 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $30.92 | $30.3 | -$0.62 | 6% 27-405 (432) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $12.43 | $11.94 | -$0.49 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $9.52 | $9.33 | -$0.19 | 59% 3388-2314 (5702) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $8.67 | $6.37 | +$0.2 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.45 | -$0.15 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
Invested
$3,540.92
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$71.3
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$71.97
Value
$74.96
PnL
+$2.99
Record
54%
509-435 (944)
Invested
$62.84
Value
$64.27
PnL
+$1.43
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$30.92
Value
$30.3
PnL
-$0.62
Record
6%
27-405 (432)
Invested
$12.43
Value
$11.94
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.33
PnL
-$0.19
Record
59%
3388-2314 (5702)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.