Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$267.41
-$0.58
52.9¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $159.02 | $156.4 | -$2.62 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46.1¢ | $73.18 | $75.36 | +$2.17 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $18.55 | $18.2 | -$0.35 | 52% 123-112 (235) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.71 | $10.81 | +$0.1 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.09 | $4.18 | +$0.09 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.44 | $2.46 | +$0.03 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$159.02
Value
$156.4
PnL
-$2.62
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$73.18
Value
$75.36
PnL
+$2.17
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$18.55
Value
$18.2
PnL
-$0.35
Record
52%
123-112 (235)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$10.81
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$2.46
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.