Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 46¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$461.02
$1.93
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+83 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $371.4 | $367.82 | -$3.58 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $256.4 | $254.07 | -$2.33 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $115 | $113.75 | -$1.25 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $43.56 | $45.04 | +$1.48 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $28.8 | $28.8 | +$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.9¢ | $10.11 | $10.26 | +$0.15 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $9.1 | +$0.3 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
Invested
$371.4
Value
$367.82
PnL
-$3.58
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.56
Value
$45.04
PnL
+$1.48
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.