Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 220.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 68¢ · $414 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$413.62
-$6.01
67¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 67¢ | $197.43 | $198.92 | +$1.49 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $131.55 | $123.58 | -$7.97 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $62.51 | $62.98 | +$0.47 | 61% 894-574 (1468) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $19.21 | $19.21 | +$0 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $8.94 | $8.94 | +$0 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$197.43
Value
$198.92
PnL
+$1.49
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$131.55
Value
$123.58
PnL
-$7.97
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$62.51
Value
$62.98
PnL
+$0.47
Record
61%
894-574 (1468)
Invested
$19.21
Value
$19.21
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$8.94
Value
$8.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.