Spread: Heat (-9.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (60%) · Jazz at 53¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
5
Jazz 60%
$231.73
-$0.13
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Jazzavg 52¢ | $194.52 | $194.52 | +$0 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Heatavg 48¢ | $16.8 | $16.45 | -$0.35 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100 | Jazzavg 52¢ | $13.23 | $13.36 | +$0.13 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Heatavg 47¢ | $5.57 | $5.63 | +$0.06 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Jazzavg 51¢ | $1.74 | $1.77 | +$0.03 | 70% 1655-702 (2357) |
Invested
$194.52
Value
$194.52
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.03
Record
70%
1655-702 (2357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.