Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Heat (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (40%) · Jazz at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
5
Jazz 40%
$3.8K
-$5.63
47.1¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Jazzavg 47.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$46.69 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Heatavg 53¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$26.01 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
 VeryLucky888 | Heatavg 52.5¢ | $525 | $540 | +$15 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 45¢ | $29.25 | $29.9 | +$0.65 | 23% 176-590 (766) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Heatavg 55.5¢ | $22.2 | $21.6 | -$0.6 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,900.49
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$46.69
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$1,360.66
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$26.01
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
VeryLucky888Invested
$525
Value
$540
PnL
+$15
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$29.25
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.65
Record
23%
176-590 (766)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$22.2
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.