Spread: Heat (-7.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (57%) · Heat at 52¢ · $576 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
7
Heat 57%
$576.3
-$7.14
53.5¢ → 52¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Heatavg 52¢ | $239.2 | $236.9 | -$2.3 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Jazzavg 43.9¢ | $124.63 | $127.8 | +$3.17 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Heatavg 56¢ | $76.72 | $71.24 | -$5.48 | 52% 123-114 (237) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Heatavg 56¢ | $72.24 | $67.08 | -$5.16 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 44¢ | $51.92 | $53.1 | +$1.18 | 24% 205-639 (844) |
RJ RJW1CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 44¢ | $15.92 | $17.55 | +$1.63 | 47% 116-129 (245) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Heatavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.58 | -$0.17 | 23% 149-494 (643) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$239.2
Value
$236.9
PnL
-$2.3
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$124.63
Value
$127.8
PnL
+$3.17
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$76.72
Value
$71.24
PnL
-$5.48
Record
52%
123-114 (237)
Invested
$72.24
Value
$67.08
PnL
-$5.16
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$51.92
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$1.18
Record
24%
205-639 (844)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$17.55
PnL
+$1.63
Record
47%
116-129 (245)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.17
Record
23%
149-494 (643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.