Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Jazz (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (83%) · Heat at 46¢ · $973 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
6
Heat 83%
$972.57
-$11.7
47.4¢ → 45.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Jazzavg 53¢ | $460.85 | $465.23 | +$4.38 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Heatavg 47.5¢ | $458.73 | $390.85 | -$13.16 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Heatavg 48¢ | $40.47 | $38.78 | -$1.69 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Heatavg 47¢ | $29.61 | $28.98 | -$0.63 | 15% 21-117 (138) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Heatavg 46¢ | $28.06 | $28.06 | +$0 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Heatavg 47.3¢ | $21.27 | $20.67 | -$0.6 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
Invested
$460.85
Value
$465.23
PnL
+$4.38
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$458.73
Value
$390.85
PnL
-$13.16
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$40.47
Value
$38.78
PnL
-$1.69
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$28.98
PnL
-$0.63
Record
15%
21-117 (138)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$28.06
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$21.27
Value
$20.67
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.