Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 19.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 47¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$3.2K
-$44.16
Research grade
AvoidYes at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeA3DeD580E454AAdaffd7c2df80616AA8e39524D-1779286950371CTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$85.83 | — 7-1 (8) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $779.31 | $817.75 | +$38.45 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 47.9¢ | $40.67 | $39.95 | -$0.72 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $15.05 | $10.34 | -$0.01 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $31.5 | $7.4 | +$3.95 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$2,408.82
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$85.83
Record
—
7-1 (8)
Invested
$779.31
Value
$817.75
PnL
+$38.45
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Invested
$40.67
Value
$39.95
PnL
-$0.72
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$10.34
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$3.95
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.