Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$237.62

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,630

Combined PnL-$235.5

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,419

Combined PnL-$2.12

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$192.57	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
nigiri99	Underavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.35	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.15	47% 2623-2923 (5546)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 50¢	$749.41	$726.92	-$22.48	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$934.72	$680.52	+$4.8	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$374.85	$367.15	-$7.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$302.42	$313.38	+$12.51
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 49¢	$285.51	$282.91	-$2.61	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$247.5	$242.5	-$5	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 51¢	$208.85	$210.89	+$2.05	51% 1005-965 (1970)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$54.11	$40.44	-$1.74	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.05	56% 7468-5986 (13454)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	53% 7644-6915 (14559)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.96	$2.02	+$0.06	50% 1244-1261 (2505)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,914.01

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$192.57

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,902.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.35

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,093.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.15

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$749.41

Value

$726.92

PnL

-$22.48

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$934.72

Value

$680.52

PnL

+$4.8

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Over$374.8549.5¢-$7.71

Under$302.4249.7¢+$12.51

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$285.51

Value

$282.91

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$247.5

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$208.85

Value

$210.89

PnL

+$2.05

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.11

Value

$40.44

PnL

-$1.74

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

7468-5986 (13454)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

7644-6915 (14559)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

1244-1261 (2505)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.