Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$42.75
47¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$45.16 | 46% 7288-8598 (15886) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $509.78 | $499.96 | -$9.82 | 47% 13045-14637 (27682) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.3¢ | $336.59 | $324.97 | -$11.62 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $173.19 | $174.99 | +$1.8 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53.5¢ | $267.5 | $265 | -$2.5 | 58% 43629-31734 (75363) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $8.43 | $8.52 | +$0.09 | 57% 17357-12959 (30316) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,409.84
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$45.16
Record
46%
7288-8598 (15886)
Invested
$509.78
Value
$499.96
PnL
-$9.82
Record
47%
13045-14637 (27682)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$267.5
Value
$265
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
43629-31734 (75363)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
17357-12959 (30316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.