Heat vs. Lakers

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (55%) · Lakers at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Heat46¢Lakers54¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$133.81

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 54.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat46%

Lakers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,388

Combined PnL+$136.95

Heat5 traders

Total Value$864.07

Total Shares1,794

Combined PnL-$3.13

Lakers — 55%Heat — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$27.91	54% 17416-14612 (32028)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 53¢	$946.69	$973.48	+$26.79
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 45.4¢	$447.26	$448.37	+$1.11
RollAwayTheDew	Lakersavg 50.5¢	$717.23	$737.88	+$20.65	54% 470-408 (878)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Heatavg 47.1¢	$693.09	$706.2	+$13.11	50% 34214-33759 (67973)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47.1¢	$398.34	$384.79	-$13.56
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$294.75	$321.41	+$26.66
HI hi774c	Lakersavg 46¢	$553.06	$625.2	+$72.14	51% 4836-4566 (9402)
FO forecastication4	Lakersavg 47¢	$387.75	$429	+$41.25	50% 1224-1240 (2464)
38 38791873984189CTR	Heatavg 45¢	$310.65	$314.08	+$3.42	—
UP UpTheBlues	Lakersavg 54¢	$295.56	$298.29	+$2.74	58% 47746-33933 (81679)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Heatavg 49¢	$179.34	$175.68	-$3.66	50% 7184-7240 (14424)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Heatavg 45¢	$168.07	$169.93	+$1.87	—
SE sentrioCTR	Heatavg 45.4¢	$131.68	$132.5	+$0.82	50% 24963-24637 (49600)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lakersavg 54¢	$126.66	$127.83	+$1.17	50% 19657-20025 (39682)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lakersavg 52.6¢	$84.2	$83.2	-$1	54% 11626-10102 (21728)
GH ghorrockCTR	Heatavg 50¢	$145	$71.87	-$5.59	56% 14488-11246 (25734)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,393.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.91

Record

54%

17416-14612 (32028)

Both legs:

Lakers$946.6953¢+$26.79

Heat$447.2645.4¢+$1.11

RollAwayTheDew

Lakers

Invested

$717.23

Value

$737.88

PnL

+$20.65

Record

54%

470-408 (878)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$693.09

Value

$706.2

PnL

+$13.11

Record

50%

34214-33759 (67973)

Both legs:

Heat$398.3447.1¢-$13.56

Lakers$294.7550¢+$26.66

hi774c

Lakers

Invested

$553.06

Value

$625.2

PnL

+$72.14

Record

51%

4836-4566 (9402)

forecastication4

Lakers

Invested

$387.75

Value

$429

PnL

+$41.25

Record

50%

1224-1240 (2464)

38791873984189CTR

Heat

Invested

$310.65

Value

$314.08

PnL

+$3.42

Record

—

UpTheBlues

Lakers

Invested

$295.56

Value

$298.29

PnL

+$2.74

Record

58%

47746-33933 (81679)

Forecastication2CTR

Heat

Invested

$179.34

Value

$175.68

PnL

-$3.66

Record

50%

7184-7240 (14424)

6512395314597884CTR

Heat

Invested

$168.07

Value

$169.93

PnL

+$1.87

Record

—

sentrioCTR

Heat

Invested

$131.68

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

24963-24637 (49600)

omnibus-076daa

Lakers

Invested

$126.66

Value

$127.83

PnL

+$1.17

Record

50%

19657-20025 (39682)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lakers

Invested

$84.2

Value

$83.2

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

11626-10102 (21728)

ghorrockCTR

Heat

Invested

$145

Value

$71.87

PnL

-$5.59

Record

56%

14488-11246 (25734)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.