Heat vs. Warriors

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (77%) · Warriors at 70¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 6

Heat31¢Warriors69¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 77%

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$109.48

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat31%

Warriors70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors17 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares40,017

Combined PnL+$222.64

Heat5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares16,021

Combined PnL-$113.15

Warriors — 77%Heat — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Warriorsavg 71¢	$9.1K	$9.5K	+$61.1	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Warriorsavg 71¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$50	58% 269-192 (461)
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 70¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$32.85	54% 18230-15339 (33569)
NS NS13CTR	Heatavg 31¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$78.44	52% 433-398 (831)
HI hi774c	Warriorsavg 70¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$16.12	46% 5200-6045 (11245)
VeryLucky888	Warriorsavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
NM NM-P	Warriorsavg 70.5¢	$705	$705	+$0	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
DV dv-pm	Warriorsavg 71¢	$514.75	$518.38	+$3.63	49% 3325-3526 (6851)
OD Oddstorm	Warriorsavg 68.4¢	$434.2	$448.18	+$13.98	48% 7398-7926 (15324)
HE Herdonia	Warriorsavg 71¢	$399.35	$402.16	+$2.81	51% 3806-3728 (7534)
GC GC-P	Warriorsavg 70¢	$350	$352.5	+$2.5	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
BO BoomLaLa	Warriorsavg 70.3¢	$370.95	$347.1	-$9.75	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
38 38791873984189	Warriorsavg 66.4¢	$1.7K	$340.9	+$67.69	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
GA GaditimaCTR	Heatavg 33.5¢	$335.27	$280	-$55.27	48% 7369-8075 (15444)
SE sentrio	Warriorsavg 70.1¢	$276.14	$275.21	-$0.93	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR<$100	Heatavg 31¢	$78.38	$74.63	-$3.75	37% 517-868 (1385)
nigiri99<$100	Warriorsavg 66.7¢	$56.72	$59.07	+$2.36	46% 8590-10239 (18829)
GH ghorrock<$100	Warriorsavg 61.1¢	$34.25	$24.55	+$0.55	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Warriorsavg 72¢	$18.78	$18.51	-$0.13	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Warriorsavg 60.4¢	$14.11	$15.98	+$2.1	51% 4756-4624 (9380)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Heatavg 28¢	$3.94	$3.94	+$0	53% 2569-2244 (4813)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Heatavg 28¢	$37.34	$1.4	+$24.31	49% 4474-4672 (9146)

purplegatto

Warriors

Invested

$9,054.99

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$61.1

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Warriors

Invested

$7,100

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$50

Record

58%

269-192 (461)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$4,598.41

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$32.85

Record

54%

18230-15339 (33569)

NS13CTR

Heat

Invested

$4,576.76

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$78.44

Record

52%

433-398 (831)

hi774c

Warriors

Invested

$2,256.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$16.12

Record

46%

5200-6045 (11245)

VeryLucky888

Warriors

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

NM-P

Warriors

Invested

$705

Value

$705

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

dv-pm

Warriors

Invested

$514.75

Value

$518.38

PnL

+$3.63

Record

49%

3325-3526 (6851)

Oddstorm

Warriors

Invested

$434.2

Value

$448.18

PnL

+$13.98

Record

48%

7398-7926 (15324)

Herdonia

Warriors

Invested

$399.35

Value

$402.16

PnL

+$2.81

Record

51%

3806-3728 (7534)

GC-P

Warriors

Invested

$350

Value

$352.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

BoomLaLa

Warriors

Invested

$370.95

Value

$347.1

PnL

-$9.75

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

38791873984189

Warriors

Invested

$1,660.58

Value

$340.9

PnL

+$67.69

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

GaditimaCTR

Heat

Invested

$335.27

Value

$280

PnL

-$55.27

Record

48%

7369-8075 (15444)

sentrio

Warriors

Invested

$276.14

Value

$275.21

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$78.38

Value

$74.63

PnL

-$3.75

Record

37%

517-868 (1385)

nigiri99<$100

Warriors

Invested

$56.72

Value

$59.07

PnL

+$2.36

Record

46%

8590-10239 (18829)

ghorrock<$100

Warriors

Invested

$34.25

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Warriors

Invested

$18.78

Value

$18.51

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

6512395314597884<$100

Warriors

Invested

$14.11

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$2.1

Record

51%

4756-4624 (9380)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.94

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2569-2244 (4813)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$37.34

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$24.31

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.