Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 25%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$1.3
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$0 | 90% 236-25 (261) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$1 | 60% 117-77 (194) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $117.5 | +$0 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $53.1 | $52.77 | -$0.33 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $29.64 | $30.21 | +$0.57 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.9¢ | $23.46 | $22.56 | -$0.9 | |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $9.5 | -$0.3 | 56% 6904-5522 (12426) |
Invested
$2,877
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
90%
236-25 (261)
Invested
$1,824.69
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$1
Record
60%
117-77 (194)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.5
Value
$117.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$53.1
Value
$52.77
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
56%
6904-5522 (12426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.