Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $673 held · ends Oct 28

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$673.46

Combined PnL

$20.53

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 42.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$673.46

Total Shares1,499

Combined PnL+$20.53

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 45¢	$351.11	$343.3	-$3.9	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 38¢	$251.25	$275.87	+$24.85	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$29.94	$31.03	+$1.1	38% 847-1408 (2255)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$15.3	$14.96	-$1.02	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.3	-$0.5	56% 6908-5524 (12432)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$351.11

Value

$343.3

PnL

-$3.9

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$251.25

Value

$275.87

PnL

+$24.85

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.94

Value

$31.03

PnL

+$1.1

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.3

Value

$14.96

PnL

-$1.02

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.