Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (80%) · Heat at 59¢ · $166 held · ends Oct 28

Hawks42¢Heat58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 80%

Total Value

$166.35

Combined PnL

-$5.61

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks42%

Heat59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat4 traders

Total Value$164.2

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$5.76

Hawks1 trader

Total Value$2.15

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.15

Heat — 80%Hawks — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Heatavg 59¢	$80.23	$77.51	-$2.72	54% 16846-14132 (30978)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Heatavg 59¢	$59	$57	-$2	52% 308-285 (593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Heatavg 59¢	$20.31	$20.12	-$0.19	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Heatavg 62¢	$10.41	$9.56	-$0.85	50% 6790-6820 (13610)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hawksavg 40¢	$2	$2.15	+$0.15	47% 2037-2339 (4376)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Heat

Invested

$80.23

Value

$77.51

PnL

-$2.72

Record

54%

16846-14132 (30978)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Heat

Invested

$59

Value

$57

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

308-285 (593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Heat

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.12

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

Forecastication2<$100

Heat

Invested

$10.41

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

6790-6820 (13610)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

2037-2339 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.