Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (33%) · Heat at 59¢ · $579 held · ends Oct 28

Hawks42¢Heat58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 33%

Total Value

$579.1

Combined PnL

-$7.49

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks42%

Heat59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$362.05

Total Shares658

Combined PnL-$16.34

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$217.04

Total Shares482

Combined PnL+$8.86

Heat — 33%Hawks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO woshikd99	Heatavg 57.7¢	$360.04	$343.35	-$16.68	50% 31-31 (62)
RN1CTR	Hawksavg 42¢	$105	$112.5	+$7.5	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Hawksavg 46¢	$58.79	$57.52	-$1.28	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Hawksavg 42¢	$39.69	$42.53	+$2.84	38% 848-1408 (2256)
FF ff3364<$100	Heatavg 54¢	$18.36	$18.7	+$0.34	50% 786-785 (1571)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hawksavg 44.5¢	$4.45	$4.5	-$0.2	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

woshikd99

Heat

Invested

$360.04

Value

$343.35

PnL

-$16.68

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

RN1CTR

Hawks

Invested

$105

Value

$112.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$58.79

Value

$57.52

PnL

-$1.28

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$39.69

Value

$42.53

PnL

+$2.84

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

ff3364<$100

Heat

Invested

$18.36

Value

$18.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

786-785 (1571)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.