Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (25%) · Heat at 52¢ · $38K held · ends Oct 28

Hawks49¢Heat51¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.9K

Combined PnL

$3.97

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 51.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks49%

Heat52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat4 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares37,297

Combined PnL-$420.77

Hawks12 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares36,952

Combined PnL+$424.74

Heat — 25%Hawks — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ArielFilipino	Heatavg 53.7¢	$19.6K	$19.2K	-$420.85	61% 96-62 (158)
FO forecastication4CTR	Hawksavg 46¢	$6.9K	$7.1K	+$225	49% 1124-1151 (2275)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hawksavg 46.4¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$74.45	54% 16846-14132 (30978)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Hawksavg 47¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$30	47% 2403-2685 (5088)
HI hi774cCTR	Hawksavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$50.59	52% 4653-4359 (9012)
TheOneto3CTR	Hawksavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.63	51% 455-438 (893)
BA BayupatiCTR	Hawksavg 46.2¢	$569.57	$585.02	+$15.45	50% 192-189 (381)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Hawksavg 48¢	$442.68	$438.25	+$0.98	53% 5495-4840 (10335)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48¢	$260	$257.29	+$2.71
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 53¢	$182.68	$180.96	-$1.72
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513	Heatavg 52¢	$401.12	$401.12	+$0	54% 253-216 (469)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Hawksavg 46.2¢	$266.3	$273.95	+$7.65	52% 308-285 (593)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Hawksavg 46¢	$138	$142.5	+$4.5	53% 11465-9982 (21447)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hawksavg 47.2¢	$78.51	$78.83	+$0.32	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Hawksavg 45¢	$19.84	$20.94	+$1.1	62% 4014-2455 (6469)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$10.71	$10.92	+$0.11	50% 6790-6820 (13610)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$10	$4.75	+$0.05	56% 6904-5522 (12426)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hawksavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.75	+$0	47% 2037-2339 (4376)
RL RLWG<$100	Heatavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.63	-$0.02	50% 7625-7648 (15273)

ArielFilipino

Heat

Invested

$19,583.36

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$420.85

Record

61%

96-62 (158)

forecastication4CTR

Hawks

Invested

$6,900

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$225

Record

49%

1124-1151 (2275)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hawks

Invested

$3,681.85

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$74.45

Record

54%

16846-14132 (30978)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Hawks

Invested

$2,820

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

2403-2685 (5088)

hi774cCTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,551.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.59

Record

52%

4653-4359 (9012)

TheOneto3CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,469.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.63

Record

51%

455-438 (893)

BayupatiCTR

Hawks

Invested

$569.57

Value

$585.02

PnL

+$15.45

Record

50%

192-189 (381)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$442.68

Value

$438.25

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

5495-4840 (10335)

Both legs:

Hawks$26048¢+$2.71

Heat$182.6853¢-$1.72

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513

Heat

Invested

$401.12

Value

$401.12

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

253-216 (469)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Hawks

Invested

$266.3

Value

$273.95

PnL

+$7.65

Record

52%

308-285 (593)

BoomLaLaCTR

Hawks

Invested

$138

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

53%

11465-9982 (21447)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$78.51

Value

$78.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$19.84

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$1.1

Record

62%

4014-2455 (6469)

Forecastication2<$100

Heat

Invested

$10.71

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

6790-6820 (13610)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$10

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

6904-5522 (12426)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2037-2339 (4376)

RLWG<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

7625-7648 (15273)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.