Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Heat (51%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (83%) · Hawks at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
6
Hawks 83%
$4.2K
-$125.51
50.5¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hawksavg 50.5¢ | $3.8K | $3.7K | -$116.77 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
FO Forecastication2 | Heatavg 48¢ | $232.8 | $232.8 | -$7.28 | 50% 6813-6826 (13639) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Hawksavg 49.5¢ | $199.69 | $197.66 | -$2.03 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
WO woshikd99CTR<$100 | Hawksavg 53¢ | $48.23 | $45.5 | +$0.46 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Hawksavg 52¢ | $12.73 | $12.24 | +$0.37 | 53% 5499-4842 (10341) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Hawksavg 52.5¢ | $5.25 | $4.95 | -$0.25 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
Invested
$3,816.86
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$116.77
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$232.8
Value
$232.8
PnL
-$7.28
Record
50%
6813-6826 (13639)
Invested
$199.69
Value
$197.66
PnL
-$2.03
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$48.23
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$0.37
Record
53%
5499-4842 (10341)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.25
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.