Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (83%) · Hawks at 53¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
6
Hawks 83%
$10.7K
$92.71
51.3¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Heatavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.23 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Hawksavg 51.2¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$99.09 | 54% 16868-14145 (31013) |
SU SunlineTicker | Hawksavg 51.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$35.37 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
BU BullishBarb | Hawksavg 51.9¢ | $571.74 | $572.52 | +$6.29 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
IC ic4cream<$100 | Hawksavg 52¢ | $52.52 | $53.03 | +$0.51 | 59% 2611-1835 (4446) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hawksavg 54.5¢ | $10 | $5.15 | -$0.3 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,727
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.23
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$3,925.03
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$99.09
Record
54%
16868-14145 (31013)
Invested
$1,380.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$35.37
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$571.74
Value
$572.52
PnL
+$6.29
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$52.52
Value
$53.03
PnL
+$0.51
Record
59%
2611-1835 (4446)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.3
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.