Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Hawks (64%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Heat (-8.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (50%) · Heat at 37¢ · $64K held · ended Oct 28

Heat37¢Hawks63¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.1K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 36.5¢

-26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat37%

Hawks64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares29,000

Combined PnL$-8.7K

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,541

Combined PnL+$50.09

Heat — 50%Hawks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Heatavg 48.2¢	$47.6K	$50.3K	+$2.7K	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.2¢	$30.5K	$35.5K	+$5.0K
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50.8¢	$17.1K	$14.8K	$-2.3K
norrisfanCTR	Heatavg 49.3¢	$14.1K	$5.5K	$-8.7K	42% 473-651 (1124)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Heatavg 47¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$148.72	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$470.82
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 52.4¢	$1.2K	$890.89	-$322.09
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Heatavg 48.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$119.9	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$205.53
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 53.4¢	$545.43	$459.81	-$85.62
JU justaluckydude	Hawksavg 52.9¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$210.26	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
AN Anon455	Hawksavg 50¢	$703.38	$890.43	+$187.06	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
BU BullishBarb	Hawksavg 52.1¢	$623.62	$698.08	+$74.46	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Heatavg 35.2¢	$51.69	$48.5	-$3.19	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$48.45	$18.05	-$30.4	46% 196-231 (427)
28 2829CTR<$100	Heatavg 24¢	$22.08	$17.48	-$4.6	46% 402-480 (882)
US User7429<$100	Hawksavg 32¢	$6.8	$5.63	-$1.17	55% 8126-6560 (14686)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$47,637.17

Value

$50.3K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Heat$30,515.848.2¢+$5.0K

Hawks$17,121.3750.8¢$-2.3K

norrisfanCTR

Heat

Invested

$14,138.66

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

42%

473-651 (1124)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,739.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$148.72

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Heat$1,526.0947¢+$470.82

Hawks$1,212.9852.4¢-$322.09

takeormakeARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,977.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$119.9

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Heat$1,432.0248.1¢+$205.53

Hawks$545.4353.4¢-$85.62

justaluckydude

Hawks

Invested

$1,913.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$210.26

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

Anon455

Hawks

Invested

$703.38

Value

$890.43

PnL

+$187.06

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

BullishBarb

Hawks

Invested

$623.62

Value

$698.08

PnL

+$74.46

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$51.69

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$3.19

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$48.45

Value

$18.05

PnL

-$30.4

Record

46%

196-231 (427)

2829CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$22.08

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$4.6

Record

46%

402-480 (882)

User7429<$100

Hawks

Invested

$6.8

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$1.17

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.