Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Heat (56%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (43%) · Hawks at 44¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Heat56¢Hawks44¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$79.28

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 44¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat56%

Hawks44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$720.63

Total Shares1,858

Combined PnL-$68.35

Heat4 traders

Total Value$224.94

Total Shares399

Combined PnL-$10.93

Hawks — 43%Heat — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Heatavg 42.7¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$182.84	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 42.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.87
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47.7¢	$817.84	$960.81	+$142.97
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Heatavg 61.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$74.93	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$6.03
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 35.5¢	$818.96	$887.86	+$68.91
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Heatavg 56.9¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$251.56	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 56.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$331.74
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49.9¢	$653.76	$733.94	+$80.17
BU BullishBarbCTR	Hawksavg 42.1¢	$645.22	$551.09	-$94.13	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hawksavg 43.5¢	$96.96	$124.82	+$27.86	49% 559-583 (1142)
SE seeeeeeb	Heatavg 66¢	$103.62	$116.18	+$12.56	51% 675-657 (1332)
PA pauleta23	Heatavg 66¢	$103.62	$69.08	-$34.54	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Hawksavg 45¢	$46.8	$44.72	-$2.08	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
28 2829<$100	Heatavg 29¢	$21.46	$29.6	+$8.14	46% 402-480 (882)
HRTrading<$100	Heatavg 40¢	$7.17	$10.08	+$2.91	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,111.89

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$182.84

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Heat$1,294.0642.7¢+$39.87

Hawks$817.8447.7¢+$142.97

takeormakeARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,039.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$74.93

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Heat$1,220.8961.2¢+$6.03

Hawks$818.9635.5¢+$68.91

Anon455ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,115.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$251.56

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Heat$1,462.1356.9¢-$331.74

Hawks$653.7649.9¢+$80.17

BullishBarbCTR

Hawks

Invested

$645.22

Value

$551.09

PnL

-$94.13

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hawks

Invested

$96.96

Value

$124.82

PnL

+$27.86

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

seeeeeeb

Heat

Invested

$103.62

Value

$116.18

PnL

+$12.56

Record

51%

675-657 (1332)

pauleta23

Heat

Invested

$103.62

Value

$69.08

PnL

-$34.54

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$46.8

Value

$44.72

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

2829<$100

Heat

Invested

$21.46

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$8.14

Record

46%

402-480 (882)

HRTrading<$100

Heat

Invested

$7.17

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$2.91

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.