Spread: Heat (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (57%) · Heat at 73¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Heat73¢Hawks27¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 72.5¢

+32% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat73%

Hawks28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat4 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares11,046

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,258

Combined PnL-$544.19

Heat — 57%Hawks — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hawks) and the top 1000 (6 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Heatavg 50¢	$4.6K	$6.2K	+$1.6K	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TA takeormake	Heatavg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15.3	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
JU justaluckydude	Heatavg 63¢	$771.12	$850.68	+$79.56	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
KA KaneAnalyticsCTR	Hawksavg 52¢	$1.2K	$830.04	-$381.82	52% 348-319 (667)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hawksavg 47.7¢	$455.95	$543.88	+$13.1	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 44¢	$193.67	$330.12	+$61.62
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47.7¢	$407.65	$213.77	-$48.52
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Hawksavg 40¢	$240.12	$326.39	-$43.33	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 33¢	$106.92	$238.14	+$1.62
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 40¢	$133.2	$88.25	-$44.95
AN Anon455CTR	Hawksavg 42.2¢	$389.54	$230.78	-$158.77	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
28 2829<$100	Heatavg 33¢	$27.06	$41.82	+$14.76	46% 402-480 (882)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hawksavg 48.8¢	$7.38	$3.77	-$3.6	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Heat

Invested

$4,575.87

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

takeormake

Heat

Invested

$1,981.51

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15.3

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

justaluckydude

Heat

Invested

$771.12

Value

$850.68

PnL

+$79.56

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

KaneAnalyticsCTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,211.86

Value

$830.04

PnL

-$381.82

Record

52%

348-319 (667)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$455.95

Value

$543.88

PnL

+$13.1

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Heat$193.6744¢+$61.62

Hawks$407.6547.7¢-$48.52

BullishBarbARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$240.12

Value

$326.39

PnL

-$43.33

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Both legs:

Heat$106.9233¢+$1.62

Hawks$133.240¢-$44.95

Anon455CTR

Hawks

Invested

$389.54

Value

$230.78

PnL

-$158.77

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

2829<$100

Heat

Invested

$27.06

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$14.76

Record

46%

402-480 (882)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$7.38

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$3.6

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hawks) and the top 1000 (6 on Heat) disagree here.

whaleHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.