Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Heat (88%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Heat (-2.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (43%) · Hawks at 13¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
7
Hawks 43%
1 arb excluded
$35.4K
-$925.57
60.7¢ → 12.5¢
-79% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Heatavg 42.1¢ | $13.6K | $20.5K | +$6.9K | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
AC acorpCTR | Hawksavg 61¢ | $19.5K | $11.7K | $-7.8K | 49% 614-631 (1245) |
TA takeormake | Heatavg 77.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$140.68 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Heatavg 48.3¢ | $851.9 | $985.95 | +$154.31 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 48.3¢ | $595.58 | $782.57 | +$223.97 | |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 46¢ | $256.32 | $203.39 | -$69.65 | |
AN Anon455 | Heatavg 49.5¢ | $428.26 | $549.28 | +$121.03 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 27.5¢ | $74.45 | $86.74 | +$12.29 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
28 2829<$100 | Heatavg 39¢ | $32.37 | $48.97 | +$16.6 | 46% 402-480 (882) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 40.4¢ | $17.16 | $5.31 | -$11.84 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$13,575.64
Value
$20.5K
PnL
+$6.9K
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$19,517.89
Value
$11.7K
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
49%
614-631 (1245)
Invested
$1,680.26
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$140.68
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$851.9
Value
$985.95
PnL
+$154.31
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
Invested
$428.26
Value
$549.28
PnL
+$121.03
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$74.45
Value
$86.74
PnL
+$12.29
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$32.37
Value
$48.97
PnL
+$16.6
Record
46%
402-480 (882)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.16
Value
$5.31
PnL
-$11.84
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.