Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Heat (78%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Heat (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (40%) · Hawks at 23¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28

Heat78¢Hawks22¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$279.21

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 22.5¢

-55% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat78%

Hawks23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,312

Combined PnL+$97.92

Heat3 traders

Total Value$615.24

Total Shares871

Combined PnL+$181.29

Hawks — 40%Heat — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Heatavg 48.2¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$383.78	54% 16882-14151 (31033)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.2¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$673.48
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$289.7
GA gagarin59CTR	Hawksavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$97.92	52% 657-608 (1265)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Heatavg 47.3¢	$689.98	$708.74	+$18.76	49% 559-581 (1140)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47.3¢	$400.22	$444.06	+$43.83
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 52¢	$289.75	$264.68	-$25.07
AN Anon455	Heatavg 54¢	$309.96	$444.85	+$134.89	56% 2640-2094 (4734)
RN1	Heatavg 41.9¢	$119.76	$165.88	+$46.12	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Hawksavg 59¢	$28.32	$28.32	+$0	50% 3719-3693 (7412)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Heatavg 40¢	$4.4	$4.51	+$0.28	50% 6816-6831 (13647)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$5,850.79

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$383.78

Record

54%

16882-14151 (31033)

Both legs:

Heat$3,898.6248.2¢+$673.48

Hawks$1,952.1751.1¢-$289.7

gagarin59CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,632

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$97.92

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$689.98

Value

$708.74

PnL

+$18.76

Record

49%

559-581 (1140)

Both legs:

Heat$400.2247.3¢+$43.83

Hawks$289.7552¢-$25.07

Anon455

Heat

Invested

$309.96

Value

$444.85

PnL

+$134.89

Record

56%

2640-2094 (4734)

RN1

Heat

Invested

$119.76

Value

$165.88

PnL

+$46.12

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$28.32

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3719-3693 (7412)

Forecastication2<$100

Heat

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

6816-6831 (13647)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.