Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Hawks (59%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Hawks

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (40%) · Heat at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28

Heat42¢Hawks58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 40%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$28.89

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 41.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat42%

Hawks59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,931

Combined PnL-$22.15

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,769

Combined PnL-$6.73

Heat — 40%Hawks — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoCTR	Heatavg 43.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$21.63	50% 5750-5854 (11604)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Hawksavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.33	54% 368-319 (687)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Hawksavg 49¢	$37.24	$43.7	+$6.46	53% 301-270 (571)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Heatavg 42.3¢	$39.59	$39.07	-$0.52	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Hawksavg 57¢	$15.5	$15.64	+$0.14	53% 2069-1826 (3895)

purplegattoCTR

Heat

Invested

$1,661.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$21.63

Record

50%

5750-5854 (11604)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Hawks

Invested

$1,546.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.33

Record

54%

368-319 (687)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Hawks

Invested

$37.24

Value

$43.7

PnL

+$6.46

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$39.59

Value

$39.07

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Hawks

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

2069-1826 (3895)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.