Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 10¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$330.18

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 10¢

-77% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$814.91

Total Shares885

Combined PnL+$48.25

Over2 traders

Total Value$348.7

Total Shares1,683

Combined PnL-$378.43

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 60.7¢	$638.54	$621.79	-$16.75	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 42.9¢	$1.7K	$341.32	-$372.34	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$224.15	$178.2	+$61.59	48% 414-442 (856)
RN1<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.79	$9.24	+$3.03	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$13.47	$7.38	-$6.09	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.39	$5.68	+$0.38	57% 27306-20190 (47496)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$638.54

Value

$621.79

PnL

-$16.75

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,664.98

Value

$341.32

PnL

-$372.34

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$224.15

Value

$178.2

PnL

+$61.59

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$5.79

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$3.03

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.47

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$6.09

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$3.39

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.