Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 10¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 10¢

-82% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares9,646

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,332

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 55.9¢	$6.3K	$2.0K	$-1.5K	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Underavg 46¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	+$424.11	42% 250-345 (595)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 42¢	$3.2K	$1.9K	+$570.16	53% 598-534 (1132)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$132.3	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$738.43	$1.0K	+$298.02
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.9¢	$680.57	$514.89	-$165.73
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$3.4K	$1.1K	-$729.88	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$1.5K	$830.97	+$55.24	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$507.26	$652.05	+$144.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$268.38	$178.92	-$89.46
AN Anon455	Underavg 44¢	$876.89	$543.67	+$157.57	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 70.8¢	$17.35	$20.83	+$3.47	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,262.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

ENDBOSSLLC

Under

Invested

$3,262.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$424.11

Record

42%

250-345 (595)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$3,168.35

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$570.16

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,419.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$132.3

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Under$738.4347¢+$298.02

Over$680.5744.9¢-$165.73

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$3,384

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$729.88

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,518.03

Value

$830.97

PnL

+$55.24

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Under$507.2652.9¢+$144.7

Over$268.3848¢-$89.46

Anon455

Under

Invested

$876.89

Value

$543.67

PnL

+$157.57

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$17.35

Value

$20.83

PnL

+$3.47

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.