Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (86%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 14¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$864.51

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 14¢

-73% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,453

Combined PnL+$275.26

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,227

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$26.94	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$278.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.7¢	$694.62	$946.42	+$251.73
GA gagarin59	Underavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$217.64	53% 598-534 (1132)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53.3¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$705.31	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$1.5K	$808.47	+$34.7	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$454.47	$573.57	+$119.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$319.27	$234.9	-$84.39
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 57.3¢	$2.1K	$801.87	-$391.44	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$308.66	$265.65	-$43.01	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
AN Anon455	Underavg 36.1¢	$107.86	$168.75	+$60.9	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 68.1¢	$45.03	$41.75	-$3.28	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,175.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$26.94

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Over$1,480.3649.9¢-$278.66

Under$694.6243.7¢+$251.73

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,430.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$217.64

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,765.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$705.31

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,542.75

Value

$808.47

PnL

+$34.7

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Under$454.4748.7¢+$119.09

Over$319.2752.3¢-$84.39

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,082.77

Value

$801.87

PnL

-$391.44

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$308.66

Value

$265.65

PnL

-$43.01

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$107.86

Value

$168.75

PnL

+$60.9

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$45.03

Value

$41.75

PnL

-$3.28

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.