Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
$3.5K
-$501.32
50¢ → 84¢
+68% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 53¢ | $3.2K | $1.4K | -$257.5 | 53% 598-534 (1132) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 51.4¢ | $685.77 | $640.53 | -$45.24 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 62.5¢ | $1.4K | $610.38 | -$237.95 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 48.5¢ | $782.73 | $430.5 | +$50.88 | 48% 414-442 (856) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 34¢ | $592.96 | $296.48 | +$88.08 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 38.6¢ | $180.73 | $79.56 | -$101.17 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $26.04 | $26.04 | -$0 | 50% 3633-3602 (7235) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 56.9¢ | $10.06 | $11.65 | +$1.59 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
Invested
$3,218.81
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$257.5
Record
53%
598-534 (1132)
Invested
$685.77
Value
$640.53
PnL
-$45.24
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
Invested
$1,356.4
Value
$610.38
PnL
-$237.95
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$782.73
Value
$430.5
PnL
+$50.88
Record
48%
414-442 (856)
Invested
$592.96
Value
$296.48
PnL
+$88.08
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
Invested
$180.73
Value
$79.56
PnL
-$101.17
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$26.04
Value
$26.04
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3633-3602 (7235)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.06
Value
$11.65
PnL
+$1.59
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.