Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 20¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 27

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$347.73

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 20¢

-63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,447

Combined PnL-$333.52

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,237

Combined PnL-$14.21

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.3K	$4.4K	-$326.23	53% 598-534 (1132)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$358.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$32.75
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53.8¢	$7.1K	$3.7K	-$131.94	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$4.7K	$2.4K	+$84.3	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$90.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$545.46	$539.61	-$5.85
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$120.13	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.19	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$925.07	$848.86	-$76.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$592.06	$655.2	+$63.05
TO tomb2456	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	50% 262-267 (529)
CH chiefphiCTR	Overavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$81.46	57% 80-61 (141)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$770.35	$803.45	+$33.09	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$546.11	$541.44	-$4.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$224.24	$262.01	+$37.76
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52.6¢	$44.77	$54.33	+$9.56	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Underavg 44¢	$40.82	$46.39	+$5.57	53% 3064-2690 (5754)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 49¢	$32.83	$33.5	+$0.67	50% 3633-3602 (7235)

gagarin59ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,272.46

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$326.23

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

Both legs:

Under$2,757.8346¢-$358.98

Over$1,931.6759¢+$32.75

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$7,098.58

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$131.94

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,688.32

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$84.3

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Over$1,763.1749.5¢+$90.15

Under$545.4648.5¢-$5.85

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,777.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$120.13

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,517.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.19

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Under$925.0749¢-$76.24

Over$592.0649.7¢+$63.05

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

50%

262-267 (529)

chiefphiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,098.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$81.46

Record

57%

80-61 (141)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$770.35

Value

$803.45

PnL

+$33.09

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

Both legs:

Under$546.1148.4¢-$4.67

Over$224.2444.5¢+$37.76

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$44.77

Value

$54.33

PnL

+$9.56

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Under

Invested

$40.82

Value

$46.39

PnL

+$5.57

Record

53%

3064-2690 (5754)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$32.83

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

3633-3602 (7235)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.