Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 222.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 33¢ · $4K held

Over33¢Under67¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$210.33

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 32.5¢

-37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,554

Combined PnL-$207.46

Under3 traders

Total Value$442.11

Total Shares835

Combined PnL-$2.87

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$61.99	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$58.35	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$657.1	$567.75	-$89.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.7¢	$417.71	$448.91	+$31.14
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.1K	$902.02	-$149.42	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.3K	$545.76	-$113.33	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$501.04	$405.1	-$95.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 69.7¢	$158.05	$140.67	-$17.38
latvian.demon	Underavg 52.8¢	$362.8	$362.8	+$0	54% 597-514 (1111)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$395.08	$346.98	-$48.1	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.9¢	$179.18	$218.02	+$38.84
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$215.9	$128.96	-$86.94
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Underavg 58¢	$67.86	$66.1	-$1.76	53% 3064-2690 (5754)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$10.2	$14.15	+$3.95	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 45¢	$31.82	$13.2	-$1.11	48% 414-442 (856)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,293.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$61.99

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,075.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$58.35

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Under$657.144¢-$89.49

Over$417.7157.7¢+$31.14

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,051.43

Value

$902.02

PnL

-$149.42

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,292.92

Value

$545.76

PnL

-$113.33

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

Both legs:

Under$501.0447¢-$95.94

Over$158.0569.7¢-$17.38

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$362.8

Value

$362.8

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

597-514 (1111)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$395.08

Value

$346.98

PnL

-$48.1

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

Both legs:

Under$179.1855.9¢+$38.84

Over$215.953.6¢-$86.94

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Under

Invested

$67.86

Value

$66.1

PnL

-$1.76

Record

53%

3064-2690 (5754)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$3.95

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$31.82

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$1.11

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.