Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 220.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 45¢ · $5K held
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
1 arb excluded
$4.9K
$416.05
52.6¢ → 45¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$229.28 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
GA GaditimaARB<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $998.26 | -$69.41 | — |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $558.56 | $758.68 | +$200.12 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $509.11 | $239.58 | -$269.53 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 60.5¢ | $718.53 | $807.01 | +$88.48 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 61.2¢ | $373.23 | $463.85 | +$90.62 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
AN Anon455CTR | Overavg 69.4¢ | $177.33 | $125.02 | +$1.95 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 55.4¢ | $39.77 | $44.57 | +$4.8 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $2.5 | $3.41 | +$0.92 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
Invested
$2,201.27
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$229.28
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$1,067.67
Value
$998.26
PnL
-$69.41
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$718.53
Value
$807.01
PnL
+$88.48
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
Invested
$373.23
Value
$463.85
PnL
+$90.62
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$177.33
Value
$125.02
PnL
+$1.95
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$39.77
Value
$44.57
PnL
+$4.8
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$3.41
PnL
+$0.92
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.