Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (90%) · Jazz at 93¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Grizzlies7¢Jazz93¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$258.02

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 93¢

+75% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies7%

Jazz93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares9,669

Combined PnL+$258.25

Grizzlies1 trader

Total Value$2.37

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.23

Jazz — 90%Grizzlies — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 52.1¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$41.44	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 53.8¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$245.61	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 43.2¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$124.85	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 43.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$61.65
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$63.2
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 48.1¢	$537.69	$433.03	+$51.88	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 48.1¢	$258.14	$273.68	+$15.54
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 44¢	$123	$159.35	+$36.34
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 53.6¢	$238.37	$262.5	+$24.13	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
RN1	Jazzavg 47¢	$114.68	$143.96	+$29.28	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
SE seeeeeeb	Jazzavg 63¢	$105.39	$98.7	-$6.69	49% 589-601 (1190)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 54.7¢	$100.18	$58.1	+$3.29	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
HRTrading<$100	Jazzavg 53.3¢	$37.1	$39.71	+$2.61	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
GA Gaditima<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$5.25	$6.73	+$1.48	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$2.6	$2.37	-$0.23	57% 12548-9494 (22042)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Jazzavg 72¢	$1.2	$1.18	-$0.02	57% 27306-20190 (47496)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$2,896.31

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$41.44

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$2,545.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$245.61

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,592.14

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$124.85

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,460.8843.2¢+$61.65

Jazz$1,130.7952.1¢+$63.2

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$537.69

Value

$433.03

PnL

+$51.88

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$258.1448.1¢+$15.54

Jazz$12344¢+$36.34

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$238.37

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$24.13

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$114.68

Value

$143.96

PnL

+$29.28

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

seeeeeeb

Jazz

Invested

$105.39

Value

$98.7

PnL

-$6.69

Record

49%

589-601 (1190)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$100.18

Value

$58.1

PnL

+$3.29

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

HRTrading<$100

Jazz

Invested

$37.1

Value

$39.71

PnL

+$2.61

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Gaditima<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.25

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$1.48

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.