Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (69%) · Jazz at 75¢ · $217K held · ended Oct 27

Grizzlies25¢Jazz75¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 69%

Total Value

$217.3K

Combined PnL

$-9.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 75¢

+48% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies25%

Jazz75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz11 traders

Total Value$204.5K

Total Shares414,658

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares24,953

Combined PnL+$270.23

Jazz — 69%Grizzlies — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJazz 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Jazzavg 50.5¢	$214.0K	$101.7K	$-6.4K	65% 37-20 (57)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 50.8¢	$160.0K	$77.2K	$-5.5K	48% 414-442 (856)
OL olegio	Jazzavg 52.3¢	$8.2K	$8.8K	+$577.7	44% 404-519 (923)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Grizzliesavg 55.2¢	$12.0K	$6.3K	-$321.28	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
SP spartachio	Jazzavg 51¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$435.69	48% 684-735 (1419)
NooseracCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$8.9K	$4.7K	+$399.96	52% 5668-5221 (10889)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 48.8¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$159.73	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 45.3¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$400.42	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
MO mooseborzoii	Jazzavg 50.9¢	$3.6K	$1.9K	+$76.83	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
GA gagarin59CTR	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$3.0K	$1.5K	+$224.81	53% 598-534 (1132)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 43.2¢	$3.9K	$1.2K	+$217.03	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
latvian.demonCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$1.0K	$463.54	-$36.46	54% 597-514 (1111)
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 48.6¢	$307.49	$462.04	+$154.55	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
HRTrading	Jazzavg 45.3¢	$118.76	$214.14	+$95.38	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
SU SunlineTicker	Jazzavg 67¢	$136.68	$114.24	-$22.44	62% 3934-2398 (6332)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 29.5¢	$6.49	$9.69	+$3.2	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

yabanci

Jazz

Invested

$214,000

Value

$101.7K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

65%

37-20 (57)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$160,035.1

Value

$77.2K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

olegio

Jazz

Invested

$8,242.11

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$577.7

Record

44%

404-519 (923)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$12,003.58

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$321.28

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

spartachio

Jazz

Invested

$4,444

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$435.69

Record

48%

684-735 (1419)

NooseracCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$8,888

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$399.96

Record

52%

5668-5221 (10889)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$4,250.51

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$159.73

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$3,465.56

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$400.42

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

mooseborzoii

Jazz

Invested

$3,592.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$76.83

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

gagarin59CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,997.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$224.81

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$3,948.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$217.03

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

latvian.demonCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,041.67

Value

$463.54

PnL

-$36.46

Record

54%

597-514 (1111)

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$307.49

Value

$462.04

PnL

+$154.55

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

HRTrading

Jazz

Invested

$118.76

Value

$214.14

PnL

+$95.38

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

SunlineTicker

Jazz

Invested

$136.68

Value

$114.24

PnL

-$22.44

Record

62%

3934-2398 (6332)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6.49

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$3.2

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrJazz 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.