Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (56%) · Jazz at 59¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 27

Grizzlies41¢Jazz59¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

-$248.93

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 59¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies41%

Jazz59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares13,462

Combined PnL+$599.22

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares17,170

Combined PnL-$848.15

Grizzlies — 44%Jazz — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$13.3K	$8.1K	+$599.99	52% 5668-5221 (10889)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 44.2¢	$16.1K	$6.4K	-$760.94	48% 414-442 (856)
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$6.8K	$3.4K	+$101.85	53% 598-534 (1132)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$223.5
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$121.65
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 65.5¢	$755.92	$553.83	-$202.09	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 65.5¢	$577.88	$366.31	-$211.58
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 55.5¢	$178.03	$187.52	+$9.49
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 48.6¢	$485.51	$389.27	-$96.24	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
HRTrading<$100	Jazzavg 35.6¢	$22.64	$32.57	+$9.93	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
RN1CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$25.19	$27.43	+$2.24	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
US User7429CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 31.3¢	$24.22	$20.9	-$3.32	55% 7964-6450 (14414)
AN Anon455<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$15.08	$6.79	-$0.75	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 43¢	$2.26	$2.57	+$0.31	57% 12548-9494 (22042)
SH shoemanhere<$100	Jazzavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.55	-$0.15	56% 7005-5416 (12421)

NooseracCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$13,333

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$599.99

Record

52%

5668-5221 (10889)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$16,091.96

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$760.94

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

gagarin59ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6,766.36

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$101.85

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,899.7551¢+$223.5

Jazz$1,429.1447¢-$121.65

takeormakeARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$755.92

Value

$553.83

PnL

-$202.09

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$577.8865.5¢-$211.58

Jazz$178.0355.5¢+$9.49

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$485.51

Value

$389.27

PnL

-$96.24

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

HRTrading<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.64

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$9.93

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

RN1CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$25.19

Value

$27.43

PnL

+$2.24

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

User7429CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$24.22

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$3.32

Record

55%

7964-6450 (14414)

Anon455<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.08

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

shoemanhere<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

7005-5416 (12421)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.