Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (80%) · Jazz at 98¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 27

Grizzlies3¢Jazz97¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

-$285.37

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 97.5¢

+58% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies3%

Jazz98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares9,331

Combined PnL+$311.38

Grizzlies2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,188

Combined PnL-$596.75

Jazz — 80%Grizzlies — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 39.9¢	$10.7K	$11.0K	+$328.91	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 54.9¢	$5.2K	$6.1K	+$866.67
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 39.9¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$537.76
RU Ruler11	Jazzavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$488.28	51% 276-264 (540)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Jazzavg 65.6¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$221.52	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 65.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$35.73
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 42.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$185.78
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 73¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$341.93	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 36.2¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$163.42	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 36.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.86
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 54.8¢	$955.91	$1.1K	+$152.56
GA gagarin59CTR	Grizzliesavg 44.1¢	$3.9K	$1.1K	-$604.67	53% 598-534 (1132)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$749.58	$448.42	+$82.54	48% 414-442 (856)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 58.5¢	$575.91	$377.61	+$42.16	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
RN1	Jazzavg 50¢	$127.5	$163.2	+$35.7	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
GA Gaditima	Jazzavg 66¢	$165.3	$160.47	-$4.83	—
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 22¢	$69.68	$77.6	+$7.92	52% 270-247 (517)
HRTrading<$100	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$28.06	$36.3	+$8.24	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
GH ghorrock<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$3.99	$5.22	+$1.22	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$10,716.28

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$328.91

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

Both legs:

Jazz$5,211.5454.9¢+$866.67

Grizzlies$5,504.7439.9¢-$537.76

Ruler11

Jazz

Invested

$2,028.23

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$488.28

Record

51%

276-264 (540)

takeormakeARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2,680.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$221.52

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,483.9965.6¢-$35.73

Grizzlies$1,196.9842.6¢-$185.78

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$2,779.09

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$341.93

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,139.39

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$163.42

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,183.2136.2¢+$10.86

Jazz$955.9154.8¢+$152.56

gagarin59CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,871.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$604.67

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$749.58

Value

$448.42

PnL

+$82.54

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$575.91

Value

$377.61

PnL

+$42.16

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$127.5

Value

$163.2

PnL

+$35.7

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Gaditima

Jazz

Invested

$165.3

Value

$160.47

PnL

-$4.83

Record

—

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$69.68

Value

$77.6

PnL

+$7.92

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

HRTrading<$100

Jazz

Invested

$28.06

Value

$36.3

PnL

+$8.24

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

ghorrock<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.99

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$1.22

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.