Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$1.2K
$47.74
54.9¢ → 60¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $478.94 | $526.96 | +$48.01 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 56¢ | $393.12 | $421.2 | +$28.08 | 43% 26-35 (61) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $119.86 | $110.22 | -$9.64 | 46% 38-45 (83) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $117.96 | $103.78 | -$14.18 | 52% 59-54 (113) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $29.9 | $26 | -$3.9 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $11.24 | $11.63 | +$0.39 | 48% 171-185 (356) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 45.6¢ | $8.9 | $8.48 | -$0.42 | 17% 39-184 (223) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $4 | -$0.6 | 69% 27-12 (39) |
Invested
$478.94
Value
$526.96
PnL
+$48.01
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
nigiri99Invested
$393.12
Value
$421.2
PnL
+$28.08
Record
43%
26-35 (61)
Invested
$119.86
Value
$110.22
PnL
-$9.64
Record
46%
38-45 (83)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.96
Value
$103.78
PnL
-$14.18
Record
52%
59-54 (113)
Invested
$29.9
Value
$26
PnL
-$3.9
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
Invested
$11.24
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0.39
Record
48%
171-185 (356)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$8.48
PnL
-$0.42
Record
17%
39-184 (223)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
69%
27-12 (39)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.