Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 49¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$32.55

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,183

Combined PnL+$45.41

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares11,807

Combined PnL-$77.96

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$42.85	47% 2303-2604 (4907)
IA ianf2026CTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$43.89	50% 134-136 (270)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$39.15	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
RN1	Overavg 51¢	$127.5	$128.75	+$1.25	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 51¢	$65.9	$66.54	+$0.65	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$132.76	$65.72	+$4.65	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
GC GC-P	Overavg 50¢	$123.22	$62.23	+$0.62	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
HG hgawxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$61.05	$61.68	+$0.64	42% 58-81 (139)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 50¢	$50	$50.5	+$0.5	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$14.77	$8.65	-$0.45	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$5.14	$4.95	-$0.2	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,369.97

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$42.85

Record

47%

2303-2604 (4907)

ianf2026CTR

Under

Invested

$4,304.65

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$43.89

Record

50%

134-136 (270)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,706.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$39.15

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

RN1

Over

Invested

$127.5

Value

$128.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$65.9

Value

$66.54

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$132.76

Value

$65.72

PnL

+$4.65

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$123.22

Value

$62.23

PnL

+$0.62

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

hgawxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.05

Value

$61.68

PnL

+$0.64

Record

42%

58-81 (139)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$14.77

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.