Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Raptors (59%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies42¢Raptors58¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$26.52

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 41.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies42%

Raptors59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$994.95

Total Shares2,400

Combined PnL-$13.44

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$370.15

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$13.08

Grizzlies — 67%Raptors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$16.09	54% 20337-17176 (37513)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 58¢	$775.1	$781.78	+$6.68
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$771.24	$780.65	+$9.41
MA MadridTimeCTR	Grizzliesavg 42.2¢	$817.65	$803.91	-$13.74	45% 2673-3235 (5908)
RI Richidd	Raptorsavg 61.2¢	$306	$292.5	-$13.5	50% 68-67 (135)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$281.18	$290.97	+$9.78	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$213.2	$221.19	+$7.99
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 57¢	$67.99	$69.78	+$1.79
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42.2¢	$70.51	$69.33	-$1.19	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 41.9¢	$60.52	$59.2	+$1.14	50% 24122-24229 (48351)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 57.3¢	$41.18	$41.71	+$0.87	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Raptorsavg 59.2¢	$36.39	$35.94	-$0.45	48% 8399-8933 (17332)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$33.78	$34.2	+$0.41	51% 28817-28169 (56986)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42.9¢	$24.92	$23.8	-$0.12	51% 6099-5856 (11955)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42.2¢	$4.66	$4.53	+$0.06	47% 8793-9983 (18776)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,546.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.09

Record

54%

20337-17176 (37513)

Both legs:

Raptors$775.158¢+$6.68

Grizzlies$771.2441¢+$9.41

MadridTimeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$817.65

Value

$803.91

PnL

-$13.74

Record

45%

2673-3235 (5908)

Richidd

Raptors

Invested

$306

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

50%

68-67 (135)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$281.18

Value

$290.97

PnL

+$9.78

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$213.240¢+$7.99

Raptors$67.9957¢+$1.79

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$70.51

Value

$69.33

PnL

-$1.19

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$60.52

Value

$59.2

PnL

+$1.14

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$41.18

Value

$41.71

PnL

+$0.87

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

Oddstorm<$100

Raptors

Invested

$36.39

Value

$35.94

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

8399-8933 (17332)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$33.78

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$24.92

Value

$23.8

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

6099-5856 (11955)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.66

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

8793-9983 (18776)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.