Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 251.5

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Over17¢Under83¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$228.21

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$847

Total Shares1,694

Combined PnL+$559.02

Under1 trader

Total Value$501.23

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL-$330.81

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 17¢	$249.56	$734	+$484.44	43% 3532-4771 (8303)
TA takeormake	Underavg 83¢	$832.03	$501.23	-$330.81	53% 3929-3422 (7351)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 17¢	$37.23	$109.5	+$72.27	50% 6899-6893 (13792)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$1.19	$3.5	+$2.31	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$249.56

Value

$734

PnL

+$484.44

Record

43%

3532-4771 (8303)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$832.03

Value

$501.23

PnL

-$330.81

Record

53%

3929-3422 (7351)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$37.23

Value

$109.5

PnL

+$72.27

Record

50%

6899-6893 (13792)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.19

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$2.31

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.