Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$180.26
61¢ → 75.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 61¢ | $578.28 | $644.64 | +$66.36 | 62% 4113-2513 (6626) |
AN Anon455CTR | Overavg 18.4¢ | $155.28 | $269.57 | +$114.29 | 56% 2802-2227 (5029) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 78.7¢ | $269.42 | $250.77 | +$24.62 | — |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78.7¢ | $153.45 | $132.6 | -$18.39 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 20.6¢ | $76.2 | $118.17 | +$43.01 | |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $26.73 | $25.74 | -$0.99 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $3.65 | $4.2 | +$0.56 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $2.68 | $2.72 | +$0.04 | 52% 3869-3521 (7390) |
Invested
$578.28
Value
$644.64
PnL
+$66.36
Record
62%
4113-2513 (6626)
Invested
$155.28
Value
$269.57
PnL
+$114.29
Record
56%
2802-2227 (5029)
Invested
$269.42
Value
$250.77
PnL
+$24.62
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$26.73
Value
$25.74
PnL
-$0.99
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3869-3521 (7390)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.