Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 30¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.2K
-$117.89
43.4¢ → 30¢
-31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 42.5¢ | $401.88 | $397.2 | -$4.19 | 62% 4113-2513 (6626) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 68.6¢ | $285.14 | $280.08 | +$7.9 | — |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $343.35 | $240.35 | -$103.01 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $256.71 | $238.8 | -$17.91 | 43% 3532-4772 (8304) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $9.6 | $9.12 | -$0.48 | 50% 6913-6903 (13816) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.2¢ | $9.25 | $9.05 | -$0.2 | 52% 3869-3521 (7390) |
Invested
$401.88
Value
$397.2
PnL
-$4.19
Record
62%
4113-2513 (6626)
Invested
$285.14
Value
$280.08
PnL
+$7.9
Record
—
Invested
$343.35
Value
$240.35
PnL
-$103.01
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
Invested
$256.71
Value
$238.8
PnL
-$17.91
Record
43%
3532-4772 (8304)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
6913-6903 (13816)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.25
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
3869-3521 (7390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.