Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$12.3

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,037

Combined PnL-$19.21

Over1 trader

Total Value$228.07

Total Shares461

Combined PnL+$6.91

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$27.11	54% 16983-14234 (31217)
TA takeormake	Underavg 52¢	$740.87	$719.5	-$21.37	54% 3924-3384 (7308)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 53¢	$530	$505	-$25	53% 5538-4897 (10435)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 48¢	$221.16	$228.07	+$6.91	42% 3506-4756 (8262)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$0.59	+$0.04	58% 41146-29827 (70973)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,087.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$27.11

Record

54%

16983-14234 (31217)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$740.87

Value

$719.5

PnL

-$21.37

Record

54%

3924-3384 (7308)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$505

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

5538-4897 (10435)

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$221.16

Value

$228.07

PnL

+$6.91

Record

42%

3506-4756 (8262)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

41146-29827 (70973)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.