Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
$3.9K
$222.93
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$230.81 | 53% 3930-3424 (7354) |
WO woshikd99 | Overavg 53¢ | $581.94 | $587.43 | +$5.49 | 54% 96-82 (178) |
BU BullishBarb | Overavg 56.9¢ | $393 | $210.26 | -$13.5 | 43% 3532-4772 (8304) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $8.48 | $8.56 | +$0.08 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.65 | +$0.05 | 47% 2164-2475 (4639) |
Invested
$2,835.66
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$230.81
Record
53%
3930-3424 (7354)
Invested
$581.94
Value
$587.43
PnL
+$5.49
Record
54%
96-82 (178)
Invested
$393
Value
$210.26
PnL
-$13.5
Record
43%
3532-4772 (8304)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$8.56
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2164-2475 (4639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.