Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 55¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 30

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

-$52.3

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares25,260

Combined PnL-$0.07

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,111

Combined PnL-$52.23

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$12.0K	$11.9K	-$99.88	49% 690-725 (1415)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$7.2K	$6.7K	-$477.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$4.8K	$5.2K	+$377.66
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 54¢	$9.7K	$9.6K	-$89.58	46% 422-487 (909)
0X 0x1B4d7cBD8DCe8A56Dd2c51E952cCCbF55F78e246-1759455462400CTR	Underavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$50	49% 347-359 (706)
TA takeormake	Overavg 54.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$8.84	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AW awesoARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20	52% 37-34 (71)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$960	$930	-$30
AN Anon455	Overavg 55.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$50.65	56% 2802-2227 (5029)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$1.1K	$826.35	+$78.55	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.7¢	$399.76	$416.52	+$33.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$384.01	$409.83	+$45.39
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 52¢	$268.84	$305.03	+$36.19	50% 6913-6903 (13816)
BU BullishBarb	Overavg 58¢	$267.09	$278.6	+$11.51	43% 3532-4772 (8304)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$172.33	$155.4	-$16.93	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$128.23	$97.58	-$30.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$44.1	$57.82	+$13.72
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 41.4¢	$34.54	$34.22	-$0.32	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.56	$3.9	-$0.67	52% 3869-3521 (7390)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$5.49	$3.33	+$0.11	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.05	-$0.7	53% 6117-5362 (11479)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.05	-$0.65	63% 8088-4821 (12909)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$11,983.08

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$99.88

Record

49%

690-725 (1415)

Both legs:

Under$7,194.3446.1¢-$477.54

Over$4,788.7452.8¢+$377.66

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$9,674.6

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$89.58

Record

46%

422-487 (909)

0x1B4d7cBD8DCe8A56Dd2c51E952cCCbF55F78e246-1759455462400CTR

Under

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$50

Record

49%

347-359 (706)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,117.84

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$8.84

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

awesoARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,020

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,584.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.65

Record

56%

2802-2227 (5029)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,060.12

Value

$826.35

PnL

+$78.55

Record

—

Both legs:

Under$399.7643.7¢+$33.16

Over$384.0151.1¢+$45.39

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$268.84

Value

$305.03

PnL

+$36.19

Record

50%

6913-6903 (13816)

BullishBarb

Over

Invested

$267.09

Value

$278.6

PnL

+$11.51

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$172.33

Value

$155.4

PnL

-$16.93

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Under$128.2353.9¢-$30.65

Over$44.145¢+$13.72

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.54

Value

$34.22

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.56

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.67

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.49

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

6117-5362 (11479)

torta.techCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.65

Record

63%

8088-4821 (12909)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.